State Tournament 2025 Panel

1. First of all, thoughts on the 7 divisional split. Pros and Cons?
Seth-My initial reaction was that this was a great thing as the Divisions, especially at the lower levels, were extremely top heavy (ex. STVM, Lue East, Richmond Heights). Now that there are extra divisions, those powerhouses will still likely be contenders in their divisions, but you wont necessarily have the small farm town schools needing to compete with the huge powerhouses. This gives more teams a "fair shot" in my opinion, while still allowing for great basketball to be played at the highest levels. The downside, the tournament looks much different than in years past with D1 and D2 being much shorter roads, and the smaller divisions being longer roads. Most importantly it disrupts the amazing weekend that had been "States". The Semi-Finals and Finals all being packed together over 3 incredible days of hoops has changed. Sure there is still a loaded weekend with 7 state finals but it is a far cry from the 12 game slate that was nothing short of a marathon.
Tony- I have mixed feelings about it. I think it breaks up some of the perennial powers and makes some divisions more open than others. Mainly Divisions 5-7 appear to be more balanced than some previous years. Not to mention more divisions=more basketball to be played. One of the biggest downsides is the alignment issues now with the divisional breakdown. Division 3 and 5 in Southwest District have 31 total teams. Division 2 has 10 total. Other divisions you have to win 2 games to get to the District Final. Division 2 you have to win just 1 game. Depending on some brackets, some teams may even have to play 3 games. It just feels like there should be more wins to get to that District championship game vs 1 win and you’re in.

2. Favorites for each division?
Seth-
  D1: For me it has to be Olentangy Orange, with Devin Brown/Levi Davis and company rolling on a 19-2 campaign with their only two loses coming to out-of-state juggernauts in Cathedral (IN) and CIA-Bella Vista (AZ).
  D2: Lima Senior, I know Westerville North is the favorite for most but Lima Senior just has a lot of athleticism and a cast of players that can each take over a game when needed.
  D3: Might be an underdog pick but I like Louisville. They had a tough strech early in the year but lately have taken down STVM and St Iggy. They are incredibly well coached and I think that will pay off down the road. Aiken will certainly have a say as will Garfield Heights, the odds on favorite, but for me the two losses that they have are big head scratchers and makes me wary.
  D4: I like Alter to repeat, albeit in a different Division than last year, they had a couple odd losses, but I think come tournament time the knights will be locked in and looking to raise the trophy again in March.
  D5: SHOULD, come down to 2 teams, Lue East and Richmond Heights, although Lue East is younger than is years past and Richmond Heights has seemingly come back to earth from their last 3 years, at least Richmond Heights will have to work for it in the tourament this time around but ultimately I think Lue East gets it done.
  D6:I think Marion Local has the tools to make a deep run, but this is anyone's title to take. Other teams that will be a factor would be Tri-Village, Berlin Hiland, Patrick Henry, Spencerville, Convoy Crestview and Lima Central Catholic (in no paticular order).
  D7: Russia. They have been toppled late each of the last few years and have given Richmond Heights a run for their money. This year they dont have the Spartans in their way and this might be the Raiders best team in the last few years. Delphos St. Johns will defintely have a say
Tony- Division I I like Reynoldsburg. They’ve been getting cut short a few years now. They’ve got 4 Division I recruits and just been on fire this year. With the schedule they’ve played, they should be prepared.
Division II stays in Columbus with Westerville North. They have great guards in Tai/Tyson Perkins and Micah Young. I do think Lima Senior will be a problem, but the Warriors have had the best success throughout the year and I tend to like teams with winning guards.
Division III I think comes down to either Garfield Heights, Louisville, Bishop Hartley or Aiken. Garfield has the best player in Marcus Johnson. Louisville has the size, guards and coaching. Hartley has great guards and Aiken has been nearly unbeatable all year.
Division IV will come down to Alter or Wyoming in my opinion. The Knights have the size and talent with Greer, Conner and company. Wyoming has all the experience from a year ago returning and a revenge factor should they get Alter in a Regional Final.
Division V should come down to Region 17 and either Lutheran East or Richmond Heights. Of the two, I tend to lean towards Lutheran East as they’ve looked better in my opinion. Richmond Heights has played a gauntlet schedule again, but they look more human than past years. I wouldn’t rule out Columbus Academy either, who is 22-0.
Division VI I think is the most open of them all. The Northwest District has some contenders, led by Patrick Henry and Spencerville. I wouldn’t be surprised if Berlin Hiland found themselves back at UD.
Division VII just seems like Russia is destined to finally get it done. They’ve got the size, experience, athleticism to be a step ahead of everyone else in the Division.

3. Biggest surprise of the draw?
Seth-D4: Dunbar's selection to go where the 2nd round matchup is with Northridge, they could have just as easily headed down to play Valley View 2nd round. Granted that means Wyoming for the District Title or even go after Oakwood, you would have to beat them second round but feel like VV or Oakwood is a better matchup for Dunbar to run and gun on and use their athleticism against rather than matching up in a very similar game style against Northridge.
Tony- Division 6 with Anna as they had a tougher path as a 2-seed than Troy Christian as the 3-seed. Anna has the 10 and 11 seed while Troy Christian has the 12 and 13 seed in the 1st 2 rounds. With the schedule and style Anna plays, I thought teams would rather go play Troy Christian than try to match up with Anna. 

4. What team has the toughest/easiest path?
Seth- I think for the easiest path it has to be Russia, they have the Cincinnati based bracket which has been weak compared to the Northern D7 teams and then to get to the Regional Final they would likely need to beat Northside Christian. For the Regional Title they would get whoever makes it out of the bottom bracket of the Northern based teams that they have mostly beaten so far this year. For toughest path, I'd say the #2 Seed Wayne Warriors in D1. First round they get Fairmont, who they split the regular season with, then they would get Moeller for a District Title. If they make it there would get Oletangy Orange for the Regional Semi-Final.
Tony- Most of the 1-seeds have easier paths. Specifically though, Trotwood and Tri-Village appear to have the easiest paths to get to a District Title.
Vandalia Butler and Valley View have the toughest paths. Butler has to first face Xenia, a team they split with and most recently lost to. Assuming they survive and advance, the 2nd round opponent could be Chaminade-Julienne who is seemingly playing their best basketball as of late. It’s a tough 2-game stretch just to get to a District title. 
Valley View has a 1st round game with Brookville who has beaten them twice already this year. It’s hard to win 3 times in the same season, but playing a team that is very familiar with you is a tough way to start things out. If they win, either Shawnee or Urbana would be waiting for the Spartans. Valley View can score a ton but CBC teams are known to be more physical and defensive minded which could spell some problems for the young Spartans.

5. Any "Showdowns" early in the tournament? (Ex. First or second games in bracket that will be BIG matchups)
Seth- I just talked about it in the last question but Wayne getting Fairmont and then likely Moeller. Those are two VERY big games for what would be the first and/or second games of the tournament.
Tony- The 1st round matchup between Centerville and Springfield is VERY intriguing. Springfield has beaten the Elks twice this season. It’s almost impossible to pick against the Elks in March, but the fact Springfield got them twice has to open some eyes if the Wildcats could do it one more time.
Some 2nd round potential games I like is Badin/McNick in Division 3 and Northridge/Dunbar in Division 4. Badin/McNick are both GCL Coed teams and their most recent game needed OT. Badin won both games but McNick has a dynamic scorer and a history of being a winning underdog. Northridge and Dunbar both went undefeated in their respective leagues and play very similarly. It would be an exciting up-and-down game should these two meet up.

6. Which dark horse team has the best chance of making it out of the Region or maybe Regional Semi-Final? 
Seth-Botkins in D7. They can win a Distrcit Title by beating Jackson Center or Catholic Central and then can make the Regional Final if they can beat Lehman Catholic (most likely). Carlisle in D5, as they could get Summit Country Day for a District Final, and then perhaps Versailles for a Regional Title if they can get by who survives the lower part of their bracket out of Indian Lake/Waynesville/Oyler.
Tony- Northmont in Division 2 has a real chance to make it to that Regional Semifinal game. The Bolts have good guards, sound defense, and athleticism across the board. The lone downside is their Region is combined in Northwest Ohio and there are some potential contenders in that Region. If Northmont can get there, depending on the matchup, they have a chance to string together a win and play for a Regional title.

7. What Top 3 seed do you see in a trap scenario where they get bounced much earlier than expected?
Seth- D4, #3 Northridge likely gets Dunbar in Round 2 and/or CHCA in Round 3. Those are two very tough teams in a division that doesnt have a ton of seperation.
Tony- Waynesville in Division 5 could potentially be facing West Liberty-Salem and their standout Taran Logwood if the Tigers defeat Greeneview in their opener. However, I can see a 2nd round game with Indian Lake being more of a problem for them. The Lakers have two guys combining for 35 points per game, and that program has a lot of history of postseason success. I could see Waynesville having some issues with Indian Lake if that matchup came to fruition.
Lehman Catholic in Division 7 could also be on upset alert with Fort Loramie as a 1st round opponent. The Redskins don’t score a ton of points, but they play solid defense and have upset teams as a lower seed before. Not saying it will happen here, but the Redskins beat a solid Miami Valley School team a year ago and many pieces from that team are back again this year.

8. Which player(s) will need to step up most to help their team make a run?
Seth- Blake Lawson for Carlisle, if he can elevate his 17/3/3 numbers early on and put the team on his back then the Indians have a very good chance to make a run to Distrcit Champs or even Regional Semi-Winners.
Tony- Luke Rubin has been great for Oakwood so far this year, but he will have to be even better for the Lumberjacks to be sure they get out of their District. A 1st round game with Kenton Ridge is going to be physical and then either Bellefontaine or Bethel will be ready defensively for him. But a potential District Final with Taft will need to be Rubin’s best. Good guards are needed to take out Taft with their pressure defense. If he can take care of the ball against them, it gives Oakwood a shot.

9. Which of last year's State Qualfiers in the Southwest District (Centerville, Alter, Preble Shawnee and Russia) has the best chance to go back to state?
Seth- Russia. They've been able to do it the past couple years, even with D4 being more "loaded". With them being in D7, there just arent many team outside of 1 or 2 in the state that can topple the Raiders this year.
Tony- Just based on potential paths it has to be Russia to me. The only roadblock they’ve had the last few years was Richmond Heights at the state level. Now with the Spartans no longer there, there truly isn’t much standing in Russia’s way. Centerville and Alter have some really good teams they are going to have to get through to reach that state level and Preble Shawnee isn’t the same team without Shrout and Hawley.

10. Will Dayton or Cincinnati have more Regional champs?
Seth- I think Dayton takes 4 of the 7. D1-D3 will be Cincinnati teams (St. X, Winton Woods, Aiken) but D4-D7 go to Dayton (Alter, Versailles, Tri-Village, Russia). 
Tony- I think it’s going to be Cincinnati this year. The biggest divisions I think will go to Cincinnati for sure with the smaller divisions being more Dayton heavy.